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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 162305
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Avila

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 17 Oct 2018 00:05:52 GMT

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162316
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Tara, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

A tropical wave is producing widespread showers over Central
America, southeastern Mexico, and the far eastern North Pacific
Ocean. The wave is forecast to move westward over the eastern
Pacific during the next few days, and a low pressure system is
expected to develop a couple of hundred miles south of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
additional development after that time, and a tropical depression
is likely to form by Friday while the system moves generally
west-northwestward, near or just offshore the coast of southern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A nearly stationary weak area of low pressure located about 900
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower activity.  Some
slow development of this system is possible while it drifts
northward or north-northeastward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Depression Tara (EP2/EP222018)

...TINY TARA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH DISCONTINUED... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 16
 the center of Tara was located near 19.0, -105.0
 with movement NW at 2 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Tara Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018  

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 162033
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Tara Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

...TINY TARA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH DISCONTINUED...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 105.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm
warning and tropical storm watch for southwestern Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Tara was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 105.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h).  A
very slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day or
so.  On the forecast track, the center of Tara should pass very
close to the coast of southwestern Mexico, or possibly move inland,
tonight or Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast as Tara's circulation
interacts with the mountains of southwestern Mexico, and the system
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later tonight or on
Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Tara is expected to produce additional rainfall of
3 to 6 inches over the Mexican states of Colima and western
Jalisco through tonight, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches
possible over Colima and western Jalisco. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Tara Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018  

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 162032
TCMEP2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222018
2100 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 105.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 105.0W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 104.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 105.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.7N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 105.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Depression Tara Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018  

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 162033
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Tara Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Interaction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico,
along with some modest southeasterly wind shear and drier mid-level
air, have combined to weaken tiny Tara. The tropical cyclone still
has a tight spiral convective banding signature in recent microwave
imagery. However, the northern portion of the small circulation
is clearly interacting with the coastal mountains, and surface
observations from Manzanillo, Mexico (MMZO) since 1500Z have
indicated a veering wind from northeast to southeast at a steady 20
kt. The position and intensity were based in part on the MMZO
observations and a 1541Z ScatSat pass, but mainly on a 1630Z AMSU
microwave satellite overpass.

The initial motion estimate is 325/02 kt. Surface wind direction
data from MMZO indicate that Tara passed west of that station's
longitude around 1530Z. Visible and scatterometer satellite data
indicate that a surface/low-level trough lies northwest-to-southeast
just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, and the tiny
tropical cyclone is expected to drift slowly northwestward along the
trough axis for the next 12-24 hours as per most of the new 12Z
global models. The HWRF hangs on to a weak low until about 48 hours
or so, with dissipation occurring quickly thereafter. The official
forecast lies between these two scenarios, keeping Tara as a remnant
low through 36 hours. However, if the small cyclone doesn't move
away from Mexico within the next 12 hours, then degeneration into a
remnant low and eventual dissipation could occur sooner than
forecast due to continued intrusions of drier mid-level air and
interaction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico.

Regardless of the exact track or intensity of Tara or its remnants,
heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat along the immediate
coast of southwestern Mexico for the next day or so due to the
system's slow motion, and life-threatening flash flooding will be
possible in mountainous areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 19.0N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 19.5N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0600Z 19.7N 106.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Tara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018                                              

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 162033
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222018               
2100 UTC TUE OCT 16 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TARA WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P VALLARTA     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MANZANILLO     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART

Tropical Depression Tara Graphics

Tropical Depression Tara 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Oct 2018 20:35:08 GMT

Tropical Depression Tara 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Oct 2018 21:21:44 GMT