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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 240543
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, on
Tropical Depression Karen, located over the northeastern Caribbean
Sea, and on Tropical Storm Lorenzo located over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.

A weak area of low pressure centered near the north coast of the
Yucatan peninsula is producing a small area of disorganized
cloudiness and showers.  Some slow development of the low is
possible while it moves slowly westward across the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico during the next few days before it reaches the northeast
coast of Mexico late Friday or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Summary for Tropical Depression Karen (AT2/AL122019)

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FINDS KAREN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... ...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...
 As of 2:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24
 the center of Karen was located near 16.3, -65.7
 with movement N at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Karen Public Advisory Number 8A

Issued at 200 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019  

000
WTNT32 KNHC 240540
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
200 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS FINDS KAREN NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 65.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Karen
was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 65.7 West.  The
depression is now moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today.  A northward to
north-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday night.  On
the forecast track, the center of Karen will pass near or over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and then move over
the western Atlantic tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days,
and Karen could become a tropical storm again later today.

The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.

WIND:  Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected
in the warning area by late morning.  Winds could be higher on the
windward sides of hills and mountains, and also in elevated terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Depression Karen Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019  

000
WTNT22 KNHC 240250
TCMAT2
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KAREN.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  65.8W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  65.8W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  65.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.5N  66.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.6N  66.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 22.0N  65.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 23.9N  65.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.8N  64.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 28.0N  64.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 28.0N  66.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N  65.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 24/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Depression Karen Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019  

000
WTNT42 KNHC 240251
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Karen Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Deep convection associated with Karen has increased during the past
few hours, but the thunderstorm activity remains confined to the
south of the center due to north-northeasterly shear.  The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the depression this
evening, and a combination of the flight-level and SFMR data
indicate that winds are just below tropical-storm-force.  The
aircraft measured a minimum pressure of about 1008 mb.

Karen is currently situated near the western periphery of a
subtropical ridge, and it is forecast to turn northward on Tuesday
as it passes Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.  After that time,
a northward to north-northeastward motion seems likely as the
cyclone moves into a weakness left behind by Tropical Storm Jerry.
However, the models indicate that the trough will not capture Karen,
and instead the cyclone could come to a stop or drift westward by
the weekend as a ridge builds to the north of the system.  Although
the models agree on the overall scenario, the details are quite
uncertain and there remains a large spread in the guidance at days 4
and 5.  The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the right
of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
consensus models.

The environment is still quite hostile around Karen with
north-northeasterly shear of about 20 kt currently impacting
the cyclone.  However, the upper-level wind pattern is expected to
become more favorable during the next few days, and that could give
it an opportunity to strengthen. The NHC intensity forecast shows a
slow increase in winds through the forecast period. This forecast is
similar to the previous one, and lies roughly between the
aggressive SHIPS/LGEM models and the HWRF/HMON models which show
little change in intensity during the next several days.

Key Messages:

1.  Regardless of Karen's status and intensity, the system is
expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and mudslides to
Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday,
where a tropical storm warning is in effect.  The rainfall and
potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the
center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 16.1N  65.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 17.5N  66.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 19.6N  66.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 22.0N  65.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 23.9N  65.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 26.8N  64.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 28.0N  64.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 28.0N  66.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Depression Karen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019                                              

000
FONT12 KNHC 240251
PWSAT2
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122019               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   9(18)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
PONCE PR       34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34  2   9(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
VIEQUES PR     34 10   9(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  3   6( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  4   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tropical Depression Karen Graphics

Tropical Depression Karen 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 05:44:33 GMT

Tropical Depression Karen 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 03:32:02 GMT

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.

Issued at  202 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Local Statement for Puerto Rico / V.I.

Issued at  0

Summary for Tropical Storm Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)

...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER OPEN WATERS...
 As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 23
 the center of Lorenzo was located near 11.6, -26.7
 with movement W at 15 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 5

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 240236
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 26.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 26.7 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west to
west-northwest motion is expected for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Lorenzo is
expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 5

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 240236
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  26.7W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  40SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  26.7W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N  26.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 12.1N  28.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  20SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.8N  31.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.4N  34.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE  60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.0N  37.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.1N  41.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE  70SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N  44.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N  46.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N  26.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Forecast Discussion Number 5

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 240237
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Infrared satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that
convection and banding has been on the increase this evening very
near the the center of Lorenzo, while the existing bands that
extend well away from the center have been growing in size.
This improving organization supports raising the initial intensity
to 45 kt, and this is in agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB. A recent ASCAT-C overpass
sampled tropical-storm-force winds that now extend up to 80 n
mi in the northern semicircle and suggested that the initial wind
speed could be a little conservative.

Lorenzo will be in an environment favorable for intensification for
the next several days.  And, given the recent increase in convection
near the storm's center, there is now greater confidence that
Lorenzo could become a hurricane by late tomorrow. If the near-term
forecast trend verifies, then it will raise confidence that
Lorenzo may become a major hurricane in the medium range. Only at
the very end of the forecast period does it appear that the system
will begin to encounter increasing shear and some drier air, which
should limit any further strengthening. The official NHC wind speed
prediction shows intensification a little faster than the last
forecast through the first couple of days, but is near the previous
advisory thereafter. This forecast is very close to the HFIP
corrected-consensus HCCA.

Lorenzo is moving westward at 13 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to
the north of the cyclone will steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward over the next few days. Late in the forecast
period, a break in the ridge is forecast to develop between 40-45W,
which should cause Lorenzo to turn to the northwest. The official
NHC forecast is very close to the previous one, and near the
tightly clustered consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 11.6N  26.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 12.1N  28.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 12.8N  31.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 13.4N  34.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 14.0N  37.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 16.1N  41.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 19.0N  44.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 22.0N  46.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 240236
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132019               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Graphics

Tropical Storm Lorenzo 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 02:38:29 GMT

Tropical Storm Lorenzo 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 03:38:37 GMT

Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

...WEAKENING JERRY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY TONIGHT...
 As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 24
 the center of Jerry was located near 29.8, -68.4
 with movement N at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 993 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 28

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019  

000
WTNT35 KNHC 240829
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...WEAKENING JERRY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 68.4W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 68.4 West. Jerry is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn to the
northeast is expected by tonight, followed by a turn to the east-
northeast on Wednesday.  On the forecast track, the center of Jerry
is expected to pass near Bermuda on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Further weakening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda by
Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Jerry is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
across Bermuda through Wednesday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to increase along
the coast of Bermuda, and they will continue to affect the island
during the next few days.  Swells will affect portions of the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico for another day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 28

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019  

000
WTNT25 KNHC 240829
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N  68.4W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......160NE 150SE  20SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N  68.4W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N  68.4W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 30.6N  68.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 150SE  20SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 31.7N  67.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.7N  64.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  20SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.6N  61.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.9N  56.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 35.0N  54.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N  68.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 27

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019  

000
WTNT45 KNHC 240238
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Surface and flight-level data from Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigating Jerry this evening indicate that
Jerry's maximum sustained winds are holding steady at 55 kt.  The
measured minimum central pressure of 991 mb is also unchanged.
Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory remains at 55 kt.

Jerry is currently moving within a rather harsh environment produced
by a high amplitude mid- to upper-level trough situated between the
cyclone and the eastern seaboard of the United States.  The
statistical-dynamical Decay SHIPS from both the GFS and ECMWF show
the moderate westerly shear and the inhibiting thermodynamic
environment persisting through the entire forecast.  Therefore,
gradual weakening is forecast.  The NHC forecast is basically an
update of the previous advisory and is based on the NOAA HFIP HCCA
intensity consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 350/6 kt.  Jerry
will continue moving within a large break in the subtropical
ridge during the next 12 hours or so, and then turn northeastward
within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by the
aforementioned trough.  Around mid-period, Jerry should move
east-northeastward within the deep-layer mid-latitude zonal flow,
then a little to the south of east in the peripheral flow of the
subtropical high anchored to the southwest of the cyclone.  The
official forecast is a little to the south of the previous one
beyond day 3, and lies between the TVCN simple consensus and the
GFS and ECMWF global models.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected on Bermuda by late
Tuesday.  Large swells are also expected to affect the coast of
Bermuda during the next few days.  These swells could cause
life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued by the Bermuda
Weather Service for more information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 29.2N  68.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 30.1N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 31.2N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 32.4N  65.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 33.3N  62.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 34.9N  56.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 35.0N  52.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 33.9N  49.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Jerry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019                                              

498 
FONT15 KNHC 240830
PWSAT5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 29.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  4   9(13)  24(37)   2(39)   X(39)   X(39)   X(39)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS

Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

Tropical Storm Jerry 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 05:29:00 GMT

Tropical Storm Jerry 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 05:29:00 GMT

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240542
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located over the far southwestern part of the basin.

A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Upper-level winds are forecast to be too strong for
significant development while it moves little, and this system is
expected to merge with a larger system to the east in a few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the southern
coast of Mexico late this week where environmental conditions
appear conducive for subsequent development. A tropical depression
could form over the weekend while the system moves near the southern
or the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
south-southwest of southern tip of the Baja California peninusla in
a couple of days. Some development is possible later this week while
the system moves erratically northward or northeastward, several
hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

...KIKO EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING TUESDAY...
 As of 5:00 PM HST Mon Sep 23
 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -137.5
 with movement NW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 47

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 240237
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KIKO EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 137.5W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1880 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 137.5 West. Kiko is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Tuesday. A gradual turn to the
west-northwest then west is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
A weakening trend is forecast to begin on Tuesday, and Kiko should
weaken to a tropical depression by Wednesday, and degenerate into a
remnant low by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 47

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 240237
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 137.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 137.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 137.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 18.0N 138.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 19.1N 140.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 19.7N 141.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.8N 142.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.5N 146.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 137.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 47

Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 240239
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number  47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
500 PM HST Mon Sep 23 2019

Earlier this afternoon, infrared satellite imagery showed the
initial presence of an eye developing.  Since that time, the
gradient of the convection has become sharp over the southwestern
semicircle, with that cirrus clouds now covering the eye-like
feature.  This suggests that the anticipated southerly shear over
the cyclone could be beginning.  The initial intensity remains at 50
kt, and this is based off a combination of the available subjective
and objective intensity estimates.

Kiko is moving northwestward at 10 kt.  There is no change to the
forecast track philosophy.  Kiko is expected to turn to the
northwest tonight, and that motion should continue through Tuesday
in the flow between a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid- to
upper-level low to its west.  By Wednesday, Kiko is expected to turn
back to the west as the shallower system is steered by the the
low-level trade winds.  Based on the current forecast track, Kiko is
expected to enter the central Pacific basin by tomorrow night.

Since it now appears that the shear is beginning to occur over
the storm, the forecast no longer calls for any additional
strengthening.  The southerly shear is expected to increase much
more tomorrow, and the system should begin to entrain dry and stable
marine air to its west. This is expected to cause a weakening trend
to begin, and by Wednesday, Kiko is expected to become a tropical
depression, and it will likely become a remnant low shortly
thereafter.  Other than removing the near term intensification, the
official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 17.0N 137.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 18.0N 138.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 19.1N 140.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 19.7N 141.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 19.8N 142.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 19.5N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0000Z 19.5N 146.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 47

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 240238
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  47             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 140W       34  X  20(20)  12(32)   2(34)   X(34)   1(35)   X(35)
20N 140W       50  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 145W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO

Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics

Tropical Storm Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 02:40:55 GMT

Tropical Storm Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2019 03:45:14 GMT